GTA Real Estate: Fewer Homes Over $2 Million
GTA Real Estate, Luxury Market, Market Watch
The $2 Million Line: Why Fewer GTA Homes Are Crossing It
A measured look at how the Greater Toronto Area’s upper-tier market is evolving around the $2 million mark, through the lens of recent TRREB Market Watch data and Ontario’s land transfer tax thresholds.
Across the Greater Toronto Area, $2 million has become a quiet reference point for luxury buyers and sellers. It is also a tax marker in Ontario: a higher provincial land transfer tax rate applies only to the portion of a price above $2 million. This note sets out what the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) published about sales at that level, and where its figures stop.
In September 2026, TRREB reported 275 GTA sales at $2 million or more, out of 5,040 total sales. A year earlier it reported 341 out of 5,592. That is about 19.4% fewer such sales on the year, a little more than the 9% decline in all sales, so the share of sales at that level eased from about 6.1% to about 5.5%.
Illustrative artwork, not data.
What did TRREB report for September and for the year to date?
The figures below come from TRREB’s Market Watch reports for September 2026 (released October 6, 2026) and September 2025. The percentages are our own arithmetic on TRREB’s published counts.
Period | Sales at $2M or more | All GTA sales | Share at $2M or more |
|---|---|---|---|
September 2026 | 275 | 5,040 | 5.5% |
September 2025 | 341 | 5,592 | 6.1% |
January to September 2026 | 2,707 | 47,115 | 5.7% |
January to September 2025 | 2,979 | 47,727 | 6.2% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 release and September 2025 figures as published. Change on the year: September down 19.4%, year to date down 9.1% (our arithmetic).
In September 2026 the 275 sales at $2 million or more were made up of 238 detached homes, 12 semi-detached, 6 attached or row homes, 1 condominium townhouse and 18 condominium apartments. For context, TRREB reported an average GTA price of $1,006,409 for the month, down 5.1% on the year, and 16,500 new listings.
What these numbers do not show is why. TRREB’s report counts sales; it does not say whether homes are selling for less, being priced just under $2 million, or simply not coming to market. We will not guess, and nothing here predicts what comes next.
Illustrative artwork, not data.
How does Ontario land transfer tax work around $2 million?
Ontario’s provincial land transfer tax is charged in bands. For a residential purchase, the marginal rates are:
0.5% on the first $55,000
1.0% on the portion from $55,000 to $250,000
1.5% on the portion from $250,000 to $400,000
2.0% on the portion from $400,000 to $2,000,000
2.5% on the portion above $2,000,000, for homes with one or two single-family residences
The 2.5% rate applies only to the amount above $2 million. There is no cliff at the line. The rest of the price is taxed at the lower bands.
Purchase price | Ontario land transfer tax |
|---|---|
$2,000,000 | $36,475 |
$2,100,000 | $38,975 |
The $100,000 between those prices adds $2,500, which is 2.5% of that $100,000. The City of Toronto charges its own municipal land transfer tax on homes in the city, and it is not included here. Please confirm your exact figures with your lawyer.
Illustrative artwork, not data.
What does this mean for a buyer or seller near $2 million?
Fewer sales at this level does not by itself tell you what your home is worth or what a purchase will cost. It is a reason to look at comparable sales closely rather than rely on a headline. Some sellers and buyers think in bands, and the tax difference above $2 million is small and easy to calculate. What matters more is the property, the street and the timing that suits you. I explain the numbers; your lawyer and accountant advise on tax and financing.
If you would like to talk it through, you can arrange a private, unhurried conversation here. There is no obligation, and nothing is shared without your say.
Illustrative artwork, not data.
Frequently asked questions
How many GTA homes sold for $2 million or more in September 2026?
TRREB reported 275 sales at $2 million or more, out of 5,040 total GTA sales, compared with 341 out of 5,592 in September 2025.
Does every dollar above $2 million carry the 2.5% rate?
No. The 2.5% provincial rate applies only to the portion of the price above $2 million, for homes with one or two single-family residences. The earlier bands keep their lower rates.
Does this include Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax?
No. The examples show the Ontario provincial tax only. Toronto has its own municipal tax with its own rates, which your lawyer can confirm.
Sources
TRREB, Market Watch, September 2026, released October 6, 2026, and the September 2025 Market Watch.
Government of Ontario, Calculating land transfer tax.
Ali Bolourchi, BSc, MS, PSA, ABR®, Broker of A.B.R.E. Team with REMAX® Your Community Realty Inc
This article is general market information, not financial, legal or tax advice. Figures are published TRREB counts and our own arithmetic, are dated where they appear, and are not predictions.
