The Top of the Market Steadies: $2M+ Sales Tick Up as Toronto Detached Prices Stabilize

At this level the property is the easy part. What matters is timing and reading the market correctly, and October gave luxury buyers and sellers a steadier signal. Of 5,603 homes sold in the GTA, 2,084 closed at $1 million or more, 37.2% of all sales, in line with the 37.6% share for the year to date. The $2 million and above tier made up 6.0% of sales, slightly above its 5.8% year-to-date share, and Toronto detached prices recovered from September's dip.

The broader market was cautious. Sales fell 7.9% to 5,603, new listings dropped 11.9% to 14,173, and the average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%. This is the luxury read on those numbers: where the high end is trading, what changed since September, and what it means if you are buying or selling above $1 million.

The $1M+ Market at a Glance

• $1M and above: 2,084 sales, 37.2% of the GTA total (year to date: 37.6%)
• $1.5M and above: 780 sales, 13.9% of the total
• $2M and above: 338 sales, 6.0% of the total (year to date: 5.8%; September: 5.5%)
• $1M to $1.25M: 830 sales, the single busiest price band in the whole GTA market
• $1.25M to $1.5M: 474 sales
• $1.5M to $2M: 442 sales (287 from $1.5M to $1.75M, 155 from $1.75M to $2M)

The shape is the same as last month. Sales thin out as price rises, and the steepest drop-off comes above $1.5 million. The $1M to $1.25M band is where most luxury buyers are shopping, and it registered more sales than any other price range in the GTA in October.

Luxury Detached: Toronto Steadies

Detached homes were 2,693 of the month's sales, 48.1% of the market, at an average of $1,310,627 (down 3.2%). They remain the luxury product: 1,632 of those detached sales, 60.6%, closed at $1 million or more, and 294 of the 338 sales above $2 million were detached homes.

• City of Toronto (416): 741 detached sales, up 0.5%. Average price $1,603,886, down 1.2%
• Suburbs (905): 1,952 detached sales, down 6.2%. Average price $1,199,303, down 4.7%
• Detached at $2M and above: 294 sales, 10.9% of all detached sales (year to date: 10.9%)

Insight: In September the 416 detached average fell 7.6%, and we read that as a signal that high-end Toronto sellers were making concessions. October reverses it: the 416 decline narrowed to 1.2% and Toronto sales edged up. The share of detached sales above $2 million matches its year-to-date level exactly, at 10.9%. Because the 416 average includes every detached sale, not only luxury ones, treat this as a steadying signal, not a verdict on any one street.

Pockets of the Luxury Map

Inventory and pace vary enormously inside the luxury segment, and a GTA average hides it. A few regions show where pricing power sits.

• Oakville: 191 sales at an average of $1,383,011, with 4.9 months of inventory and homes selling for 95% of list (September: 162 sales, 96% of list)
• King: 28 sales at an average of $1,840,060, with 11.1 months of inventory, 92% of list and 59 days to sell (September: 11.4 months, 94% of list)
• Toronto Central: 1,089 sales at an average of $1,185,407, the busiest part of the city, with 5.1 months of inventory and 96% of list (September: 98%)

King buyers continue to have the most time and room to negotiate, with nearly a year of supply and homes closing at 92% of asking. Oakville is steadier. In Toronto Central, where sales rose from 924 to 1,089, homes closed at a slightly lower share of list price than in September, which suggests buyers there are negotiating more actively, not less.

The Economic Backdrop

Real GDP grew 3.3% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, Toronto employment grew 2.1% in September, and inflation ran at 3.1%. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is now 2.5%, up from 2.3% a month ago, and the 5-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.19%, up from 6.09%.

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer said: "GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year. While borrowing costs have increased on the back of higher inflation, the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check."

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that a Canada-U.S. trade deal "could help ease concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, strengthen consumer confidence and renew interest in homeownership as we move into 2027." For luxury buyers, confidence is the signal to watch.

What This Means for You

If You're Buying

You don't need more listings, you need the right one, and the data says you have time. Average prices are down 2.7% year over year, homes in Oakville and King are closing below list, and King has 11.1 months of supply. The caution is that supply is also shrinking (new listings are down 11.9%), so a genuinely good home in the right pocket will not wait indefinitely. A private search with clear criteria usually beats a public one.

If You're Selling

Above $1 million, the pool of qualified buyers narrows with every step up in price, and only 338 homes sold above $2 million across the whole GTA this month. Exposure matters less than reaching the right buyer. Get a valuation and a strategy before anything is listed, so you are negotiating from strength and not from a stale listing.

If You're Investing

Luxury is a patient play. Toronto detached has steadied after September's dip, and the city-versus-suburb gap is back to where it was in the summer. If you are building a long-term position in prime GTA property, October's data supports being selective and negotiating, rather than waiting for a single bottom call.

Considering a move at the top of the market?

At this level a significant sale should be handled quietly and properly. Here's how we do it: 1. A private conversation about your goals and timing. 2. A strategy and a confidential valuation, before anything is listed. 3. Controlled exposure to qualified buyers only. Without that, you risk overexposure, a stale listing and negotiating from weakness. With it, you sell at the right number to the right buyer. Call 416-886-2000 to request a private consultation, or email [email protected] to request a confidential valuation.

Ali Bolourchi Real Estate Team

Phone: 416-886-2000

Email: [email protected]

Websites: GTALuxuryHomes.ca | ali.realtor | The4Sale.com

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, October 2026. Price-band figures are from page 2 and regional figures from page 3 of the report, for all property types unless stated. Year-to-date shares are calculated from the report's year-to-date price-range table. 'Luxury' here means sales at $1 million and above; averages by property type include all price points. This article is for information purposes only and is not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.